Pick an age and a portfolio. Instead of multiplying by 4% and calling it a day, every answer here is computed live: real 2026 taxes, health insurance, account access rules, and a backtest against every market in history.
Every version of this question, can I retire at 52 with $1.8 million, is 35 enough with two, has the same shape: an age, a pile, and a lifestyle the pile has to fund. Most pages answering it multiply the pile by 4% and stop. That number ignores federal and state taxes, health insurance until Medicare, where your money actually sits, and whether the plan survives a bad first decade. So I built the answers differently: every scenario below runs through my calculator, which backtests your exact numbers against every historical starting year since the 1920s with real 2026 tax math.
Every cell loads the calculator pre-filled with that age and portfolio at a classic 4%-of-the-pot lifestyle, so you can see the real verdict and then change anything: your actual spending, your state, your account split. The highlighted combinations have full write-ups.
| Age | $1M | $1.5M | $2M | $2.5M | $3M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | $1M | $1.5M | $2M | $2.5M | $3M |
| 40 | $1M | $1.5M | $2M | $2.5M | $3M |
| 45 | $1M | $1.5M | $2M | $2.5M | $3M |
| 50 | $1M | $1.5M | $2M | $2.5M | $3M |
| 55 | $1M | $1.5M | $2M | $2.5M | $3M |
| 60 | $1M | $1.5M | $2M | $2.5M | $3M |
Grid assumptions: single filer, ~5% flat state tax, portfolio in a taxable brokerage with 5% cash, age-typical health insurance budgeted separately. All adjustable once loaded.
At 55 with $1 million — the most-asked combo. Works at about $36,750 a year all-in, and 55 is a special age: the Rule of 55 unlocks your current employer's 401k without penalties or ladders.
At 50 with $2 million — the 4% rule says $80k; after taxes and health insurance the honest number is about $71,750, and the 59½ wall is nine years wide.
At 45 with $1.5 million — the textbook 25× FIRE number, tested against the 50-year horizon it was never designed for. About $55,250 a year all-in.
At 40 with $1 million — where most articles wrongly tell you the 401k is frozen for twenty years. The Roth ladder costs almost nothing when you model it: about $36,250 a year all-in.
At 35 with $1.5 million — the scenario nobody writes seriously about. A 55-year retirement, a permanent conversion ladder, thirty years of ACA. About $54,000 a year all-in.
Three things separate these numbers from the 4%-of-the-pot version. First, taxes: withdrawals aren't spending, and the calculator runs 2026 federal brackets, capital-gains treatment and your state's rules to find what you actually net. Second, access: money in a 401k before 59½ needs a Roth conversion ladder or the Rule of 55, both of which the engine models explicitly instead of assuming all dollars are equal. Third, history instead of averages: the plan gets replayed from every historical starting year, so the verdict means it survived 1929 and 1973, not that it works on average. I published the full backtest, every 50-year retirement since 1928, as its own study. The methodology lives on how it works, and the withdrawal-rate reasoning on safe withdrawal rate.
Not financial advice. Consult a fee-only fiduciary CFP for personalized guidance. Tax figures use 2026 brackets.